NBS Weekly On-Chain Intelligence

📋 TLDR — This Week in 30 Seconds

🟢 Valuation metrics say mid-cycle, not top. MVRV Z-Score at 2.0 — cycle tops historically fire above 7. The 3.2× MVRV band sits at ~$150K. Significant room remains.
🟢 Whales and sharks absorbing at record rates. Combined yearly absorption at +180–200% — the highest since early 2013. Large entities are buying this dip aggressively.
🟡 LTH distribution is moderate, not extreme. Long-term holders taking profits (~50-100K BTC/month net), but nowhere near the intensity of prior cycle tops. LTH spending indicator shows low activity.
🔴 Sentiment at historic extremes. Fear & Greed at 8 — matching the 3 worst capitulations in Bitcoin history (2018 bottom, COVID crash, FTX collapse). Every prior instance preceded a major rally.
🟡 Derivatives reset, not overheated. Funding rates near zero, options OI rebuilding with longer-dated positioning. Speculative excess has been fully purged.

📊 Market Snapshot

Bitcoin

$68,007

+1.1%

Ethereum

$1,966

+0.9%

Solana

$84.84

+2.3%

BTC Dominance

56.5%

↑

8

Extreme Fear

Total Market Cap

$2.41T

+1.1%

ETH/BTC Dom.

9.9%

↓

Alt Season Index

10–15

BTC Season

Where Are We in the Cycle?

Four independent cycle indicators tell a consistent story: mid-cycle consolidation, not a top.

Bull Bear Market Cycle Indicator (CryptoQuant)

On-Chain Top/Bottom Index (CryptoQuant)

NUPL [SIGNAL] (Glassnode)

Supply Profitability State [SIGNAL] (Glassnode)

Bull-Bear Cycle: 30d MA below zero — short-term bearish

Top/Bottom Index: 0.35 — far from overheated (tops fire >1.0)

NUPL: 0.35–0.40 — Low Risk zone, above 4Y mean

Supply in Profit: 70–75% — healthy mid-range

Verdict: Mid-Cycle — Bullish Structure

All four cycle indicators converge on the same conclusion: mid-cycle consolidation, not a top. The Bull-Bear oscillator has dipped into short-term bearish territory (similar to mid-2021 before the final leg to $69K), but the Top/Bottom Index at 0.35 is nowhere near the danger zone. NUPL sits in "Optimism/Anxiety" — the same zone that preceded the 2017 and 2021 parabolic phases. Supply in profit at 70-75% means the market has room to expand before hitting the euphoric 90%+ levels that mark cycle tops.

Is Bitcoin Cheap?

Valuation models measuring realized value, market value, and cost basis all point the same direction.

MVRV Z-Score (Glassnode)

MVRV Pricing Bands (Glassnode)

Balanced Price (Glassnode)

Realized Price by UTXO Age Bands (CryptoQuant)

MVRV Z-Score: 2.0 — cycle tops fire at 7+

Price between 1.0× and 2.4× Realized Price bands

Balanced Price: ~$42K — price ~2× above (moderate)

1m-3m cost basis at/above spot — recent buyers underwater

Verdict: Undervalued Relative to Cycle Potential

By every major valuation model, Bitcoin is trading in mid-range territory with substantial room before reaching historically overheated levels. The MVRV Z-Score at 2.0 is miles below the 7+ readings that marked the 2017 and 2021 tops. The 3.2× MVRV band — the "extreme overvaluation" threshold — sits at ~$150K, representing 120%+ upside from current levels. Balanced Price at ~$42K provides a deep structural support floor. The one near-term risk: the 1-3 month cost basis cohort is at/above spot price. This creates a decision point — either price bounces off this cost basis or breaks below, triggering selling toward the 3-6 month support at ~$95K.

What Are the Smart Money Doing?

Long-term holders, whales, and sharks — the entities that historically call the cycle right.

LTH Accumulation/Distribution 30D Change (CryptoQuant)

LTH Spending Binary Indicator [SIGNAL] (Glassnode)

LTH Net Position Change (Glassnode)

Whale Balance Change — Excl. Exchange & Mining (CryptoQuant)

Shark + Whale Yearly Absorption Rate (Glassnode)

LTH 30D Change: mild distribution (-2 to -3%)

LTH Spending Binary: 1-of-7 days — NOT selling

LTH Net Position: -50K to -100K BTC/month (moderate)

Shark+Whale Absorption: +180-200% yearly (historic high)

Verdict: Smart Money Accumulating — Bullish

Whales and sharks are absorbing supply at the highest yearly rate since early 2013 — dwarfing every prior bull market accumulation phase. Long-term holder distribution is moderate and measured — the spending binary indicator shows only 1-of-7 days with significant LTH activity. LTH supply has stabilized near 13.0-13.2M BTC after distributing ~2.5M since Sep 2023, and the distribution rate has slowed significantly. Short-term holders are actively accumulating — their 30D change is deeply positive, signaling fresh capital entering. This is the classic "strong hands buying from weak hands" pattern that precedes major legs up.

How Much Pain Is in the Market?

Profit/loss metrics reveal whether holders are in pain, taking profits, or sitting comfortably.

Net Realized Profit/Loss (Glassnode)

Bitcoin Net Realized P/L Ratio 90d MA (CryptoQuant)

SOPR — LTH >155 days (Glassnode)

SOPR — STH <155 days (Glassnode)

STH Supply Profit/Loss Ratio [SIGNAL] (Glassnode)

Net Realized P/L: cooling — healthy digestion

P/L Ratio 90d MA: ~12-13 — approaching cycle-high

LTH SOPR: ~1.5-2.0 — distribution slowing

STH SOPR: ~0.98-1.00 — testing bull/bear line

Verdict: Pain Digesting — Critical Juncture

The market has absorbed a significant profit-taking wave and is at a critical decision point. Heavy profit realization from Q4 2025 ($2-5B+ daily at peak) has cooled to modest levels. LTH SOPR declined from extreme spikes (10-30×) to moderate levels (~1.5-2×), suggesting distribution is winding down. The critical signal: STH SOPR hovering at exactly 1.0 — the bull-bear dividing line. In bull markets it acts as support; in bear markets, resistance. Every prior juncture like this resolved decisively — mid-2021 bounced (before $69K), Jan 2022 broke down (before the bear). Watch this over the next 1-2 weeks.

What's the Leverage Saying?

Derivatives positioning reveals whether the market is over-leveraged, balanced, or cautious.

Futures Perpetual Funding Rate — All Exchanges (Glassnode)

Funding Rate 30D Percentile vs All-Time (CryptoQuant)

CME Options Open Interest by Expiration (CryptoQuant)

Funding Rate: ~0.005-0.007% — no speculative excess

30D Percentile: 45.9% — lowest since early 2023

Options OI: rebuilding with heavy long-dated positioning

Verdict: De-Leveraged — Bullish Setup

The derivatives market has undergone a complete speculative reset. Funding rates are near zero — the most subdued since mid-2023 when BTC was at $25K. The 30-day funding percentile at 45.9% is the lowest since early 2023 ($16-25K), yet price remains near $68K. This divergence (low funding at high prices) is historically one of the most bullish setups in crypto. The euphoric over-leveraging of late 2024 (funding at 80th+ percentile) has been completely purged. Options OI is rebuilding with longer-dated expiries — institutional hedging, not speculative froth.

Where Is the Money Flowing?

ETF flows, stablecoin liquidity, and US institutional demand.

US Spot Bitcoin ETF Net Flows [BTC] (Glassnode)

Stablecoin Market Cap Change vs BTC (CryptoQuant)

Coinbase Premium Index (CryptoQuant)

ETF Flows: dried up — low volume, mixed direction

Stablecoin MCap: 60-day change recovering into positive

Coinbase Premium: near zero — US demand stalled

Verdict: Flows Mixed — Watching for Resumption

ETF flows — the primary demand driver of 2024-2025 — have dried up to near-zero with a slight negative bias. Coinbase Premium near zero confirms US institutional demand has stalled. However, stablecoin market cap change is showing a positive crossover — fresh dry powder entering the ecosystem. The key trigger: if ETF inflows resume at these depressed prices (as they did in Nov 2024 after the prior correction), a significant rally is likely. If flows remain absent, recovery will be slower and driven by organic crypto-native demand.

What About Alts?

Altcoin breadth, seasonality, and exchange activity.

Altcoin Season Index — 180 Days (CryptoQuant)

Altcoin % Above SMA200/SMA50 by Exchange (CryptoQuant)

Exchange Inflow & Address Count — Altcoins (CryptoQuant)

Alt Season Index: 10–15 — deep "Bitcoin Season"

BTC vs SMA200: -30 to -35% — historically oversold

Exchange deposits: ~40-45K — subdued, low sell pressure

Verdict: Extreme Pain — Contrarian Opportunity Building

Altcoins are in maximum pain territory. The Alt Season Index at 10-15 is one of the lowest in history — comparable to mid-2019 and late 2022, both of which preceded the most explosive altcoin seasons in crypto. BTC relative to its 200-day SMA is at -30 to -35%, approaching the zones that historically marked generational buying opportunities. Exchange deposit addresses are subdued, suggesting holders are NOT panic-selling. When BTC stabilizes and capital rotates down the risk curve, the snapback for quality alts could be violent.

🔄 This Week's Spotlight — Rotating Deep Dive

Structural Signals: Capital Flows & Market Regime

Three rotating indicators that provide deeper context this week.

BTC Realized Cap — Uptrend vs Downtrend (CryptoQuant)

Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) (CryptoQuant)

Adjusted MVRV Bubble/Crash Indicator (CryptoQuant)

Realized Cap: flipped to grey (stalling)

IFP: bear/correction signal active

MVRV Bubble/Crash: recent bubble zone flagged

Spotlight Verdict: Caution Flags — Structural Headwinds

This week's spotlight reveals structural headwinds. The Realized Cap has flipped from uptrend to stalled for the first time this cycle — historically this transition precedes corrections. The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse has switched to a bear/correction signal. The MVRV Bubble/Crash indicator flagged a recent bubble zone. These are NOT "sell everything" signals — similar readings occurred during the May 2021 correction before the final leg to $69K. But they demand respect. Resolution will come from ETF inflow resumption and STH SOPR holding above 1.0.

🏥 Market Health Scorecard

Composite assessment — one representative metric from each section.

Cycle Position

7

MID-CYCLE

Valuation

8

UNDERVALUED

Smart Money

8

ACCUMULATING

Profit/Loss

5

DECISION POINT

Leverage

7

DE-LEVERAGED

Capital Flows

5

STALLED

Altcoins

3

EXTREME PAIN

Structural

4

HEADWINDS

Composite Health Score

5.9

NEUTRAL — CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

Composite Assessment

The on-chain composite scores 5.9/10 — neutral with a bullish lean. Strongest signals from valuation (MVRV far from overheated) and smart money behavior (record whale/shark absorption). Weakest from altcoins (extreme pain) and structural indicators (Realized Cap stalling, IFP bearish). The profit/loss and capital flow sections are at critical junctures that will likely resolve within 1-2 weeks, tipping the composite decisively in one direction.

👀 What to Watch This Week

The specific triggers and thresholds that matter over the next 7 days.

1

STH SOPR: The Bull/Bear Dividing Line

Currently at exactly 1.0. If it holds above 1.0 for 3+ days → bullish continuation, expect $75-80K. If it breaks below 0.97 → bearish regime shift, expect retest of $58-62K. The single most important near-term metric.

2

ETF Flow Resumption

If net inflows exceed 3,000 BTC on any single day → institutional demand returning, mirrors Nov 2024 re-accumulation. Watch BlackRock IBIT specifically.

3

Fear & Greed Divergence

If F&G stays below 15 while price holds above $65K for the full week → the "fear divergence" setup. Maximum pessimism with price refusing to break. Every prior F&G sub-10 preceded a 100%+ rally within 12 months.

4

Realized Cap Direction

Just flipped to stalled (grey). If grey persists >2 weeks → capital inflow structurally stalled, deeper correction likely. If it flips back to green → the bull is resuming.

5

Whale Absorption Continuation

If the +180-200% yearly rate sustains above +100% → large entities have high conviction and will provide a price floor. Any sudden drop = shift in whale sentiment.